Macro Regime
Transitional
Neutral
AURAEMS Intelligence Core
Intermarket Intelligence
Macro Transmission Network for policy, rates, liquidity, credit and market absorption.
Market regime
Risk-Off
Risk-OffData layer
fallback
fallbackUpdated May 10, 02:30 PM CST. Structured fallback data is loaded while live adapters initialize.
The current macro regime screens as Transitional, while the market regime remains Risk-Off.
Liquidity is contracting and rates are classified as restrictive, keeping the core transmission layer important for all risk interpretation.
The dollar is rising, credit conditions are stress, and inflation bias is sticky.
Growth is slowing, which means equity strength should be judged against credit, liquidity and rates confirmation.
The institutional bias is to separate index-level resilience from underlying financing conditions before deploying risk aggressively.
Market Regime
Risk-Off
Restrictive
Liquidity Bias
Contracting
Restrictive
Rates Bias
Restrictive
Restrictive
Inflation Bias
Sticky
Inflationary
Growth Bias
Slowing
Neutral
Macro Transmission Network
Intermarket Neural Map
Core macro drivers sit at the center. Transmission nodes translate shocks through rates, inflation, dollar funding and credit. Outer nodes represent market absorption across equities, commodities, FX and speculative liquidity.
Active timeframe
1M
Priority Panel
Core Intermarket Dashboard
Top-tier instruments that anchor the system: policy, rates, real yields, inflation, dollar, liquidity, credit, volatility and speculative beta.
FEDFUNDS
Fed Funds
0 bps
5.33%
SOFR
SOFR
+3 bps
5.32%
US2Y
US 2Y Treasury Yield
+24 bps
4.86%
US10Y
US 10Y Treasury Yield
+28 bps
4.52%
US30Y
US 30Y Treasury Yield
+31 bps
4.64%
US10Y_REAL
US 10Y Real Yield
+22 bps
2.08%
US10Y_BE
10Y Breakeven Inflation
+18 bps
2.44%
WALCL
Fed Balance Sheet
-1.2%
$7.31T
RRPONTSYD
Reverse Repo Facility
-18.0%
$0.42T
DXY
DXY
+1.8%
105.3
CL1
WTI
+6.5%
$82.4
HG1
Copper
+4.0%
$4.72
XAUUSD
Gold
+6.1%
$2,390
SPX
S&P 500
+1.9%
5,220
NDX
Nasdaq 100
+2.3%
18,150
HYG
HYG
-2.4%
$76.8
VIX
VIX
+22.0%
18.7
MOVE
MOVE
+15.0%
112
BTC
BTC
+8.5%
$64,300
Layer synthesis
Group Summary Cards
Each card condenses the directional impulse, group signal and institutional read for a layer of the macro transmission system.
Layer 01
Monetary Policy
Policy remains restrictive at the front end, keeping the first layer of the transmission mechanism tight. Current signal is restrictive.
Layer 02
Sovereign Bonds & Curve
The curve remains inverted while yields rise across key tenors, pointing to late-cycle policy pressure and tighter duration conditions. Current signal is restrictive.
Layer 03
Real Rates & Breakevens
Real yields and breakevens are both firm, suggesting that discount-rate pressure is rising alongside a sticky inflation impulse. Current signal is restrictive.
Layer 04
Systemic Liquidity
Liquidity is mixed but slightly restrictive: RRP drawdown helps, while TGA rebuild and balance-sheet drift absorb liquidity. Current signal is restrictive.
Layer 05
Foreign Exchange
The dollar maintains a firm bias against cyclical and Asian FX, implying restrictive global funding conditions. Current signal is restrictive.
Layer 06
Commodities
Energy strength leads the commodity complex while precious metals retain support, creating a moderate inflation and stress signal.
Layer 07
Equity Indices
Equities are mixed: headline large-cap indices are holding better than small caps and emerging markets. Current signal is comparatively supportive.
Layer 08
Corporate Credit
Credit is deteriorating faster than headline equities, with high-yield spreads and ETFs signaling more caution. Current signal is restrictive.
Layer 09
Volatility & Stress
Volatility is rising from a contained base, with rates volatility still important for cross-asset transmission. Current signal is restrictive.
Layer 10
Crypto / Speculative Liquidity
Crypto retains some monthly strength but shorter-term behavior is fading as real yields and liquidity conditions tighten.
Transmission Flow
Intermarket Transmission Flow
Layer 1
Monetary Policy
Front-end constraint
Restrictive
Layer 2
Bonds / Curve
Duration and curve signal
Restrictive
Layer 3
Real Rates / Breakevens
Discount rate vs inflation
Restrictive
Layer 4
Dollar / Liquidity
Global funding impulse
Restrictive
Layer 5
Credit
Balance-sheet stress
Stress
Layer 6
Equities / Commodities / Crypto
Terminal risk expression
Neutral
Layer Map
Intermarket Layer Map
Layer 01
Monetary Policy
Policy rate, overnight funding and short-end liquidity anchor.
Policy remains restrictive at the front end, keeping the first layer of the transmission mechanism tight. Current signal is restrictive.
Key instruments
Fed FundsEFFRSOFR
Restrictive
Layer 02
Sovereign Bonds & Curve
Sovereign yields, curve shape and global duration pressure.
The curve remains inverted while yields rise across key tenors, pointing to late-cycle policy pressure and tighter duration conditions. Current signal is restrictive.
Key instruments
US 2Y Treasury YieldUS 10Y Treasury YieldUS 30Y Treasury Yield2s10s Spread3m10y SpreadBund 10YJGB 10Y
Restrictive
Causal explanation
The curve translates policy expectations and growth risk into duration pricing. Inversion plus higher yields is a restrictive combination.
Group chart
| Instrument | Latest | 1D | 1W | 1M | Monthly |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
US 2Y Treasury Yield US2Y | 4.86% | +3 bps | +11 bps | +24 bps | +24 bps |
US 10Y Treasury Yield US10Y | 4.52% | +4 bps | +16 bps | +28 bps | +28 bps |
US 30Y Treasury Yield US30Y | 4.64% | +5 bps | +18 bps | +31 bps | +31 bps |
2s10s Spread US2Y-US10Y | -34 bps | +1 bps | +5 bps | +4 bps | +4 bps |
3m10y Spread US3M-US10Y | -122 bps | +2 bps | +8 bps | +15 bps | +15 bps |
Bund 10Y DE10Y | 2.62% | +2 bps | +10 bps | +19 bps | +19 bps |
JGB 10Y JP10Y | 1.04% | +1 bps | +4 bps | +11 bps | +11 bps |
UK Gilt 10Y GB10Y | 4.38% | +3 bps | +14 bps | +25 bps | +25 bps |
US 2Y Treasury Yield: The front end is repricing toward a more restrictive policy path.
US 10Y Treasury Yield: Long-end yields are rising, tightening financial conditions.
US 30Y Treasury Yield: Duration is under pressure as term premium remains elevated.
2s10s Spread: The curve remains inverted, preserving a late-cycle message.
Layer 03
Real Rates & Breakevens
Real discount rates and inflation compensation.
Real yields and breakevens are both firm, suggesting that discount-rate pressure is rising alongside a sticky inflation impulse. Current signal is restrictive.
Key instruments
US 10Y Real YieldUS 5Y Real Yield10Y Breakeven Inflation5Y Breakeven Inflation5Y5Y Forward Inflation Expectations
Restrictive
Layer 04
Systemic Liquidity
Balance-sheet liquidity, Treasury cash and dollar liquidity proxies.
Liquidity is mixed but slightly restrictive: RRP drawdown helps, while TGA rebuild and balance-sheet drift absorb liquidity. Current signal is restrictive.
Key instruments
Fed Balance SheetReverse Repo FacilityTreasury General AccountM2 / Global Liquidity ProxyDollar Liquidity Proxy
Contracting
Layer 05
Foreign Exchange
Dollar strength and pressure across cyclical and reserve currencies.
The dollar maintains a firm bias against cyclical and Asian FX, implying restrictive global funding conditions. Current signal is restrictive.
Key instruments
DXYEURUSDUSDJPYUSDCNHAUDUSDUSDMXN
Restrictive
Layer 06
Commodities
Energy, industrial metals and precious metals.
Energy strength leads the commodity complex while precious metals retain support, creating a moderate inflation and stress signal.
Key instruments
WTIBrentNatural GasCopperGoldSilverBloomberg Commodity Index
Neutral
Layer 07
Equity Indices
Global equity beta, cyclicality and duration-sensitive growth assets.
Equities are mixed: headline large-cap indices are holding better than small caps and emerging markets. Current signal is comparatively supportive.
Key instruments
S&P 500Nasdaq 100Russell 2000Stoxx Europe 600Nikkei 225MSCI Emerging Markets
Bullish
Layer 08
Corporate Credit
Investment grade, high yield and credit default indices.
Credit is deteriorating faster than headline equities, with high-yield spreads and ETFs signaling more caution. Current signal is restrictive.
Key instruments
IG SpreadsHY SpreadsLQDHYGJNKCDX IGCDX HY
Stress
Layer 09
Volatility & Stress
Equity volatility and rates volatility.
Volatility is rising from a contained base, with rates volatility still important for cross-asset transmission. Current signal is restrictive.
Key instruments
VIXMOVE
Stress
Layer 10
Crypto / Speculative Liquidity
BTC, ETH and liquidity-sensitive crypto relationships.
Crypto retains some monthly strength but shorter-term behavior is fading as real yields and liquidity conditions tighten.
Key instruments
BTCETHBTC vs NasdaqBTC vs Real Yields
Neutral
Cross-Asset Matrix
Dominant Intermarket Relations
| Layer | Dominant relation | Pressure | Institutional read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monetary Policy | Restrictive | Restriction | Policy remains restrictive at the front end, keeping the first layer of the transmission mechanism tight. Current signal is restrictive. |
| Sovereign Bonds & Curve | Restrictive | Restriction | The curve remains inverted while yields rise across key tenors, pointing to late-cycle policy pressure and tighter duration conditions. Current signal is restrictive. |
| Real Rates & Breakevens | Restrictive | Restriction | Real yields and breakevens are both firm, suggesting that discount-rate pressure is rising alongside a sticky inflation impulse. Current signal is restrictive. |
| Systemic Liquidity | Contracting | Restriction | Liquidity is mixed but slightly restrictive: RRP drawdown helps, while TGA rebuild and balance-sheet drift absorb liquidity. Current signal is restrictive. |
| Foreign Exchange | Restrictive | Restriction | The dollar maintains a firm bias against cyclical and Asian FX, implying restrictive global funding conditions. Current signal is restrictive. |
| Commodities | Neutral | Neutral | Energy strength leads the commodity complex while precious metals retain support, creating a moderate inflation and stress signal. |
| Equity Indices | Bullish | Support | Equities are mixed: headline large-cap indices are holding better than small caps and emerging markets. Current signal is comparatively supportive. |
| Corporate Credit | Stress | Stress | Credit is deteriorating faster than headline equities, with high-yield spreads and ETFs signaling more caution. Current signal is restrictive. |
| Volatility & Stress | Stress | Stress | Volatility is rising from a contained base, with rates volatility still important for cross-asset transmission. Current signal is restrictive. |
| Crypto / Speculative Liquidity | Neutral | Neutral | Crypto retains some monthly strength but shorter-term behavior is fading as real yields and liquidity conditions tighten. |
Divergences
Alerts / Intermarket Contradictions
medium
Inflation pressure through energy and rates
Oil, breakevens and nominal yields are rising together. The market is pricing a firmer inflation impulse rather than a clean growth expansion.
medium
Gold behaving as a stress hedge
Gold is rising even as real yields and credit spreads move higher. That combination suggests a partial safe-haven bid rather than purely easy liquidity.
medium
Credit weaker than headline equities
High-yield spreads are widening while the S&P 500 remains comparatively resilient. This points to either credit caution or equity complacency.